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ECOWAS response to coups d’etat as a means of unconstitutional change
The Economic Community of West African State (ECOWAS) did define clearly, its grounds for intervention, ‘establishing that it would respond to humanitarian disasters, threat to peace and security for the sub-region, and disorder occurring after threats to a democratically elected government’. These positions are rooted in the October 1999, framework for peace operations, the Protocol Relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peacekeeping and Security. The main organ supporting its peace and security responsibilities are the Mediation and Security Council (MSC) and the Executive Secretariat, now the Commission. The MSC is composed of the Heads of State and/or the Foreign Ministers from ECOWAS member states.
The MSC has several supporting mechanisms in the form of committees – the Defense and Security Commission (DSC), the Council of Elders and the ECOWAS Ceasefire Monitoring Group (ECOMOG). It is necessary to reflect more on the role of ECOMOG, as ECOWAS is being questioned on the authenticity of the Standby Force and its legality. It will be recalled that in 2004, ECOWAS announced its decision to create rapidly deployable standby capacity through ECOMOG. The Protocol identifies ECOMOG as its military component, to be based on a standby arrangement involving the use of national contingents. These contingents are expected to be earmarked, train and equipped in advance of deployment and prepared for such deployment at short notice.
To this end, the Defense and Security Commission approved the concept of a 6,500 strong force with three parts. 1,500 rapidly deployable troops, followed by a brigade of 3,500 troops for more prolonged missions and 1,500 troops in reserve.
Deployment is also subjected to operational requirements and procedures of the force and an evaluation of equipment and logistics capabilities of member states through such exercises as the Contingent Owned Equipment (COE) evaluation. However, there is a challenge here, that the infrastructure needed for logistic depots in the sub-region is in Mali, which is on the other side of the divide, as the latter is in support of the putschists.
In other words, the ECOWAS Standby Force is in place and the size has since been doubled to 12,500 troops and can be activated within the rules of subsidiarity which it requires the authorization of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union, in accordance with Art 53 of the UN Charter. In this regard, it should be noted that to activate the Standby Force, a minimum of 6 weeks is needed for it to be effectively deploy. Therefore, the Communique issued at the 2nd ECOWAS Summit of 10 August 2023 did not contradict itself, as efforts, will be on, at different tracks – diplomatic negotiations and economic sanctions, to ensure that, eventually, the stage of final deployment is avoided. We should also realize that such negotiations can sometimes be painfully slow. It may equally be pertinent, to point out, that according to Ademola Abbas (‘Consent Precluding State Responsibility: A critical Analysis (2004), ‘the Member States of the Economic Community of West African State (ECOWAS) gave their consent to the organization taking enforcement action on their territories by ratifying a protocol. Thus, since all members of ECOWAS have consented, taking enforcement action on their territories, such enforcement actions arguably do not breach international law’. In effect, collective security, in this respect, even allows member states’ action to intervene through a standby force arrangement, without recourse to their parliament, to undertake such action, although this may be controversial.
It should also be necessary to point to the effectiveness of economic sanctions, including the no-fly zone measure. It must be said that a no-fly zone measure is not a humanitarian measure, as it was claimed against the Libyan regime. Thus, it does not require the degrading of Niger’s air assets. The measure in this instance is to put economic pressure on the regime and not to destroy assets. In fact, the regime also aided, inadvertently, ECOWAS position by imposing a no-fly zone in the territory.
Overall, it is expected that this and other sanctions will bite the regime into submission.
In practical terms, what does military intervention mean, within the concept of the standby force arrangement. In its execution, there are 6 Scenarios, and the last scenario is military intervention by way of the Standby Force arrangement. The six scenarios are the following –
- Provision of advice to a political
- Observer mission co-deployed with AU/UN mission
- Stand-alone Observer mission
- Peacekeeping force for Chapter VI and preventive deployment
- Peacekeeping force for complex multi-dimensional peace keeping mission with low-level
- ECOMOG Intervention (Terrorism and Unconstitutional Changes through Coup d’Etat)
However, following the December 2022 pronouncement of ECOWAS, which signifies its absolute anathema to coup d’etat and which considers coups in whatever form, as a threat to collective security. Intervention here is simply put, denotes the use of overwhelming force. ‘Collective security measures are actions or authorized by the UN Security Council, on behalf of the international community, to enforce
international law’. Therefore, on the part of ECOWAS, it is on the right course, in its quest of intervening in Niger Republic. Before intervening, all it must do, request the authorization of the AU Peace and Security Council, which automatically requests the approval of UN Security Council.
A question to be asked is, is military intervention the first option to be presented to the putschists. Given the near penchant of coup making in the neighborhood, it was deemed necessary to come out, heavy handed, in ensuring that no one defiles the will of the organization, in terms, of the maintenance of democratic practice. If there is need for change, then it will have to wait for another round of elections. This was affirmed in the December 2022 pronouncement through a communiqué.
Nonetheless, majority of West Africans, including Nigerians question the sanctimonious attitude of ECOWAS, to coup making as anathema while condoning other forms of Unconstitutional Change of Governments, within the neighborhood. They asked, where was collective security, when the situation in Guinea was brewing; when Ouattara of Cote d’Ivoire changed the constitution; what was the reaction of the organization to the attempt by the President of Senegal to extend his tenure; as well as the lackluster nature of the previous regimes in Mali and Bukina Faso, when they were obviously going against constitutional provisions. These are pertinent questions for ECOWAS to answer for them to be credible in front of their citizens, in its attempt at intervention.
Arising from the regime change in Niger Republic, one may want to ask, what are the likely factors that instigated the change. Here, I will mention three possible factors that come to the fore, among many others. The first, is the attempt to eradicate the vestiges of French colonialism in Niger. The lingering French domination through a series of unequal treaties between France and Niger and indeed many French West African countries leaves much to be desired. However, I do not in my honest opinion, agree to this factor of eradicating the vestiges of French colonialism. Because, if that is the case, why would they, in all honesty, think of replacing that with the Wagner
Group and even Russia. There is evidence of Wagner complicity in the pillaging of Sudan’s resources, to the detriment of the Sudanese people. Furthermore, the Wagner Group is likely to replace the French in the exploration of Uranium, given the non-state party access to such strategic material thereby contributing to fragile global security by way aiding the development of dirty nuclear arsenal.
The second point and which is of vital importance is the three-prong burner that is fueling conflict on the African continent. These are power contestation, identity management, and equitable distribution of proceeds of (natural) resources. In contemporary Niger, Bazoum and former President Issoufou are in a power struggle. Bazoum wants to show himself as being in control of affairs while Issoufou wanted to be the power behind the throne and attempt to direct things, sometimes openly. It should also be noted that Issoufou comes from the majority Hausa tribe, which constituted about 60% of the population and Bazoum comes from the Shuwa Arab tribe which is about 2% of the entire population, leading to the accusation that Bazoum comes from Libya. Again, the Presidential Guard headed by Tchiani (who planned and executed the coup), remained largely intact from the days of Issoufou. Most of them were Issoufou loyalists and belong to the Hausa and the Zamba tribes which constitute 20% of the population. Through a combination of policies, Bazoum tried to upset the apple carte by attempting to change the headship of the presidential guards as well as re-organized certain interests in the energy sector, mainly the oil sector and uranium exploration. This is a sector of the economy that Issoufou has a lot of interest in. From the foregoing, all the three are complete here. Power contestation between Bazoum and Issoufou; the fact of Bazoum belonging to a minority tribe and inappropriate management of identity and the need for equitable distribution of proceeds of natural resources – continued control by Issoufou, even being out of power.
Thirdly, it is necessary to interrogate and examine ECOWAS decision to come against the coup in Niger Republic. The kernel of ECOWAS position is aimed at ‘countering terrorism across West Africa and in particular, the Sahel, which still remains an ungovernable space and reinstating democratic governance following military coup d’etat’. These two threats were perceived as rather germane to the continued insecurity of West Africa. These seem to crystallize the sub-regional thinking of what constitutes the elements of regional security. To this end, in classical international engagements, states form an ‘alliance for the purpose of using force to resist external aggression (exogeneous phenomenon) on any of its members’, in this case exogenous to democratic order in Niger and therefore, breaching the peace of both Niger and that of the neighborhood. Therefore, the use of the standby force arrangement is directed against those who breach the peace, ‘and when you enforce an action against someone, you do not need their permission to do so’.
In my humble opinion, I wish to advise that ECOWAS should focus on both diplomatic negotiations and maintain economic sanctions as a means of convincing the putschists to negotiate a way back to status quo ante, while holding the deployment of the standby force as a final card which can be dealt. This, nonetheless, does not detract from ECOWAS abhorrence of military coups and terrorism in its neighborhood. It would ultimately allow for the development of an appropriate Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to fit the demands of a Niger operation if required.
Credit to: thecable.ng
Magistrate warns no further adjournment in Snapchat nudity case
Principal Magistrate Omar Jabang of the Kanifing court has warned police prosecutors in the Snapchat nudity trial that he will no longer adjourn the case.
The case involved two women, Maimuna Jallow and Maju Samba who are accused of distributing nude videos of one Fatou Ceesay on Snapchat. They are charged with the offence of trafficking obscene publications.
Both accused persons pleaded not guilty to the charge. However, the trial could not kick start proper because of adjournments requested by the prosecution.
At the last sitting yesterday, police prosecutor Commissioner Sanneh even after informing the court that his first witness Fatou Ceesay is present, turned to apply for the court’s indulgence to grant an adjournment. “We were ready to proceed today but something came up and, on that basis, we are applying for a short adjournment. In fact, on the next adjourned date, we will either proceed or find a final solution in this case,” he pledged.
Reacting to the commissioner’s application, Magistrate Jabang warned that this will be the last time the court will indulge such applications.
“At the end of the day, adjournments are within the discretion of the court but coming here every day with the expectation that we are proceeding only to adjourn and adjourn will not be accepted. This is a waste of time and I am not taking any more adjournment. We cannot come here and keep on adjourning. I am not an adjourning platform,” he stated.
Credit to: standard.gm
Harsh economy: Buhari spent 96% of national income on debt — Oshiomhole
FORMER National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Senator Adams Oshiomhole, yesterday, revealed that President Bola Tinubu’s administration inherited an economy in which the nation’s revenue was barely enough to service its debt burden, spending 96 per cent of its income.
Senator Oshiomhole also said there was no quick fix to the nation’s economy because what he (Tinubu) inherited was a precarious situation. The lawmaker, who represents Edo North Senatorial District, spoke after a meeting with Vice President Kashim Shettima at the Presidential Villa.
Oshiomhole said: “The issue of the economy is work in progress. There is no quick fix. The Federal Government inherited a terrible economic situation. The government inherited an economy in which our total national revenue was barely enough to service our debt burden.
Spending 96 per cent, which is to say every N100, 000 Nigeria earns, N96,000 is used to repay debts and to service debt. So, you have only 4k left to pay all the salaries. So, nothing can be worse. “But they came determined that they will have to do business unusual; to arrest the drift; stabilize the economy and then begin to move forward. Some painful decisions are necessary.
“Already, the executive—the president and vice president—have shown courage in terms of the decisions they have taken, a radical movement away from one in which if you are well connected you could make billions without adding value to one in which if you want to make money, you have to work. We move away from a situation where the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, can favour you and you become a billionaire; of which they can pauperize you and your business collapses.
“Yes, it has created its challenges, but I don’t know of any drug without side effect. Doctors will always tell you that every drug might cure your ailment but it will have a side effect. So, in taking it you have to do cost and benefit analysis.
“On the whole, I believe that the broad economic, specific macro economic policies that have been put in place so far, both in terms of monetary and fiscal policies, is the best way to start.
“Just recently, a former Minister of Finance distanced herself from the monetary policies of a CBN Governor and they were not talking. If the hand and the leg are not walking in harmony, then there is no way you can get to your destination. So, I think we are in a better situation now.”
In his appeal to Nigerians, the former governor of Edo State said: “My plea to Nigerians is, when I say I will bail you out, I will fix a complicated system that is malfunctioning, I believe everyone knows that the more terrible the situation is, the more time I will require to take the right decision.”
Credit to: vanguardngr.com
Children National Assembly calls gov’t to action
Hon. Tida Barrow, member for Kanifing Municipality (KM), who read the Order Paper on behalf of CNAG, stated: “Children National Assembly of The Gambia (CNAG) is a child-led, non-statutory body established by the Government of The Gambia, through the Gambia National Assembly and the National Youth Council in partnership with UNICEF The Gambia, Ministry of Gender, Children and Social Welfare, Child Protection Alliance, ChildFund The Gambia and the National Youth Parliament with the ultimate aim to promote and advocate for the rights of all children as enshrined in the Convention on the Rights of the Child, the African Charter on the Rights and Welfare of the Child and all other legal instruments pertaining to the promotion, protection and development of children in The Gambia.”
Hon. Barrow recognises the fact but “despite the progress made, there are still challenges the country is grappling with which calls for collective action” by the Government and other relevant stakeholders to address them for the adequate protection, provision, participation and development of children in The Gambia.
In view of the above, CNAG, she states, calls on the government to respect, protect and fulfill the rights of every child in The Gambia irrespective of background, religion, ethnicity, disability or any other consideration or status.
She said they want the government and the society to “adequately and effectively enforce and implement all the laws” which protect children from all forms of sexual abuse, violence, exploitation, hazardous labour and trafficking.
Government, she continued, should also adequately and effectively implement and enforce the Children’s (Amendment) Act 2016, which prohibits child marriage, and the Women’s (Amendment) Act 2015, which prohibits Female Genital Mutilation/ Cutting, and diligently prosecute violators of these laws.
She added that Government should make basic and secondary education totally free, compulsory, qualitative, accessible and available to all children, including children in Arabic Schools “Madarasas”, and also establish standard science and IT laboratories in all schools in The Gambia and support their effective functioning.
Government should also “provide adequate school buses in all the regions of The Gambia”, particularly for rural Gambia, she stated.
She also urged society to break the culture of silence surrounding child sexual abuse and exploitation through organising open national and community dialogues using all available channels.
“Promote and fulfil the rights of children with disabilities, fight discrimination and stigmatisation against them and ensure they have access to all services and buildings,” she told the government and society, saying: “Encourage the active participation and involvement of children in decision-making processes at the national and local levels, including through child-friendly digital technologies.”
Remove sanctions imposed on Niger — Northern Elders tell Tinubu, ECOWAS
The Northern Elders Forum, NEF, has urged President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS to remove sanctions imposed on Niger to ease negotiations and prevent war.
Addressing newsmen in Abuja, Convener of NEF, Professor Ango Abdullahi, emphasized that the safety of President Mohamed Bazoum and the return of constitutional order to Niger was non-negotiable but urged the ECOWAS to explore all options before resulting to war.
His speech read by the NEF’s spokesperson, Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed said: “The safety of President Bazoum and his family and restoration of the constitutional order must remain non-negotiable priorities. The military leaders in Niger must accord due cognizance and respect for the position of ECOWAS, whose fundamental principles and goals Niger Republic submitted to.
“Active negotiations regarding President Bazoum and the plans of the military leadership in Niger should commence immediately. Nigeria is uniquely placed to engage the leadership of Niger Republic to accept these with the minimum of delay.
“President Tinubu is Chairman of ECOWAS and leader of Nigerians. He should explore ways of balancing these responsibilities without doing any injury to the position of Nigeria and Nigerians in Niger Republic and the unity of the ECOWAS.
“Nigeria should remove all sanctions and other measures intended to force the government and people of Niger into acquiescence. This will make negotiations led by Nigeria, using all assets that both countries value, easier to conduct. The Forum notes the apology offered by the military leaders in Niger to our President over the manner his envoys, General Abdussalami and His Eminence, Sultan of Sokoto were received.
“It advises that this should be treated as a sign of the respect and esteem with which Nigeria and President Tinubu are held by the putschists, which should not be wasted. We have also noted the other delegations of Mr. President who were well received.
“The signs that Nigeria can be a major facilitator in triggering potentially useful negotiations are good, and we advise that these positive indicators should be built upon. Negative sanctions are affecting the morale and welfare of citizens of both countries, and they will detract from the existing positive disposition towards Nigeria’s position”.
Abdullahi emphasized that the use of force against Niger should be completely ruled out, saying that it could hinder the restoration of constitutional order in the state and that Nigeria should not be involved in the use of force.
According to him, “The use of force against Niger should be ruled out. It is unlikely to achieve the goals of restoring the constitutional order and improving the frontiers of democratic systems in West Africa.
“It will compound the security and humanitarian crises in the ECOWAS region. It is likely to weaken and further divide the ECOWAS and provide greater access of non-African interests into the lives of Africans, with negative consequences. It will represent a setback in the goodwill which ECOWAS enjoys in Nigeria. In the event that force is used in Niger, it should not involve Nigeria, at all cost”.
He added that: “The ECOWAS should actively re-assess the roles and designs of non-African interests in the West African region. In addition to multiple threats from armed groups in the Sahel and the region, we are becoming increasingly victims of global military manoeuvres and a scramble for our assets.
“Ordinary Africans understand this, and they resent another wave of exploitation of our weaknesses and our resources by parts of the world who have little respect for Africa. African leaders must improve the quality of elections and governance so that African people can value and defend democracy in Africa with greater vigor.
“NEF commends all leaders and persons of influence, including the Nigerian Senate, who are contributing to a genuine resolution of the situation in Niger Republic. We urge President Tinubu to recognize this unique moment in history and conduct himself in a manner that it records his role as defining statesmanship.
“We appeal to the people of Nigeria and Niger, as well as our leaders, to resist any attempt to poison our centuries of invaluable relationship”.
Credit to: vanguardngr.com
TODAY IN HISTORY
AUGUST 15TH
1960 Congo gains its Independence
The Central African country came under French control in the late 19th century. In the early 20th century, the French consolidated their territories in Central Africa to create the French Equatorial Africa, with Brazzaville as its capital. During the Second World War, when the Nazis occupied France, Brazzaville acted as the temporary capital of Free France. After violent protests and riots, the country became independent with Fulbert Youlou as its first President.
Jay Jay Okocha: Super Eagles legend honoured by ex-teammates, African stars on 50th birthday
It was a congregation of stars as betting giant BetKing celebrated Nigeria Super Eagles legend Jay Jay Okocha who will clock 50 on Monday.
Jay Jay Okocha was the cynosure of all eyes as BetKing hosted his former Super Eagles teammates and African footballers during a novelty match at the Onikan Stadium on Sunday.
Okocha Dynamo emerged winners against Nigeria’s Dribblers following a 13-goal thriller.
The 49-year-old remains one of the most talented footballers to come out of Nigeria and Africa.
Okocha, who was the former captain of the Nigeria Super Eagles is regarded as one of the most talented players to ever play the game.
Known for his dribbling skills, Jay Jay entertained football lovers in Germany, Premier League, Ligue 1 and Turkey.
His time at English side Bolton Wanderers earned him a place as one of the top 10 greatest Africans to ever play in the Premier League.
BetKing celebrate Okocha
Following his reputation in the game, BetKing put together a novelty match to celebrate Okocha’s 50th birthday.
Following his reputation in the game, BetKing put together a novelty match to celebrate Okocha’s 50th birthday.
The leading sports and digital entertainment company announced the novelty match to celebrate the birthday of its brand ambassador and Nigeria football icon.
It was a well-attended event that was witnessed by some of the best players across Africa.
The match ended in a 13-goal thriller with Team Jay Jay Okocha winning 8-5 in what was an entertaining encounter.
The stars who came around to honour the football icon included prominent international legendary footballers, Emmanuel Adebayor, Asamoah Gyang, Joseph Yobo, Mutiu Adeboju, Ifeanyi Udeze, Taribo West, amongst others.
Okocha, his son, Yobo and Adepoju were some of the players who netted some fine goals in the goal-fest.
Credit to: pulsesport.ng
Niger military to prosecute Mohamed Bazoum for ‘high treason’
Niger’s military says it will prosecute deposed President Mohamed Bazoum for treason, hours after a group of senior Islamic scholars said the country’s coup leaders are open to diplomacy to resolve their standoff with West Africa’s regional bloc.
In a statement read out on national television late on Sunday, a spokesman for Niger’s military laid out the charges against Bazoum as “high treason and undermining the internal and external security” of the country.
Bazoum, 63, and his family have been held at the president’s official residence in Niamey since the coup on July 26, with international concern mounting over their conditions in detention.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has called for Bazoum’s reinstatement, imposing severe economic sanctions on Niger and threatening military intervention if civilian rule is not restored.
Still, the West African bloc, which has approved the deployment of a “standby force to restore constitutional order” in Niger, has said it remains committed to finding a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
The spokesman for Niger’s military, Colonel Major Amadou Abdramane, in his statement on Sunday, dismissed concerns over Bazoum’s health, saying the deposed leader had seen his doctor the previous day.
“After this visit, the doctor raised no problems regarding the state of health of the deposed president and members of his family,” he said.
Abdramane went on to slam ECOWAS sanctions on Niger, saying the “illegal, inhumane and humiliating” measures were making it difficult for people to access medicines, food and electricity.
Sheikh Abdullahi Bala Lau, who led the Nigerian delegation, told Al Jazeera their mission to Niamey was aimed at creating an “avenue whereby the leaders of the junta coup in Niger will have a dialogue with the ECOWAS leaders to understand each other”.
During their meeting, Tchiani “accepted to have fully direct discussions with the leaders of ECOWAS”, he said.
The Muslim scholars visited Niamey with the blessing of Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who also heads ECOWAS. Tinubu has adopted a firm stance against the coup, the sixth to hit an ECOWAS member state since 2020.
The bloc has severed financial transactions and electricity supplies as well as closed borders with landlocked Niger, blocking much-needed imports to one of the world’s poorest countries.
Al Jazeera’s Ahmed Idris, reporting from Katsina on Nigeria’s border with Niger, said the charges against Bazoum were likely to “increase tensions between the military in Niger and the international community”.
“This statement is an indication the military isn’t about to let Bazoum go. The charges they’ve announced could result in very serious repercussions for Bazoum,” Idris said.
“This could be an attempt by the military to further strengthen their hand in future negotiations,” he added.
The prospect of a military intervention to reinstate Bazoum has divided ECOWAS members and drawn warnings from foreign powers including Russia and Algeria.
Niger’s neighbours Mali and Burkina Faso, also ruled by military governments which seized power in coups, have said intervention would be tantamount to a declaration of war on them.
On Saturday, Tchiani sent a delegation, led by his defence chief General Moussa Salaou Barmou, to the Guinean capital, Conakry, to thank leaders there for their support – a sign of the coup leaders’ desire to affirm alliances as they stand up to regional and other powers.
“We are Pan-African. When our people have problems, we are always present and we will always be there,” Guinea’s interim President Mamady Doumbouya said at the meeting, according to a video shared late on Saturday night by the presidency.
The coup in Niger is seen as a major blow to many Western nations, which viewed Niamey as a partner in the Sahel region that they could work with to beat back a growing uprising by groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS).
The United States and France have more than 2,500 military personnel in the region and, with other European countries, have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in military assistance and training of Niger’s forces.
Credit to: aljazeera.com
Tinubu endorses initiative reuniting Afro-descendants with their African roots
In a statement by Ajuri Ngelale, special adviser to the president on media and publicity, Tinubu said the programme will not only re-awaken the historical awareness of society but also create economic benefits.
“Reconnecting Afro-Brazilians with their African roots will be an iconic project that will rekindle our past and light up the spirit of our ancestors,” the president was quoted as saying.
“It will re-awaken memories of what happened many years ago.
“And it is a good thing that this is coming now at a time when we are working on expanding the frontiers of freedom and democracy in Africa.”
Speaking at the State House on Friday, Wale Adeniran, who led the delegation, described the project as identical to the Lagos Black Heritage Festival.
Adeniran also said the initiative will begin in Brazil and go through other African countries before terminating in Nigeria.
He added that the initiators of ‘Heritage Voyage of Return’ sought the support of Nobel laureate Wole Soyinka and the president.
Carolina Maira Morais, another member of the delegation, said with about 126 million Afro-descendants in Brazil, “the project will integrate the two countries”.
She also disclosed that President Lula da Silva of Brazil is planning to visit Nigeria.
“Nigeria, the largest black population and the leading economy in Africa, and Brazil, a giant of South America,” she said.
“There are many African traditional families in Brazil. But no African country has gone to Brazil to identify and connect with them.”
Other delegates at the meeting included Soyinka and Ajoyemi Olabisi Osunleye, a culture activist.
Credit to: thecable.ng
Niger Coup: How Tinubu Escaped The Banana Peel
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu manifested one of the qualities that made him a political maverick; how he navigated the slippery political impasse in the Niger Republic- as the chair of the ECOWAS, he prevailed to intervene on the impasse- a task many viewed as a delicate one.
The tall orders were many and the Nigerian president wasted no time in reeling them out; first was the border closure between Nigeria and Niger- the Nigerian custom boss Adeniyi Wale literally relocated to the borders between these two nations with cultural, religious, and diplomatic ties. In the few days since the order came to effect, the effects were evident and glaringly biting. A news report showed a long stretch of trailers who entered Niger from Nigeria stranded on the border as they could no longer enter Nigeria.
It is obvious that a military solution to the political crisis in Niger will in the long run create another Afghanistan in our backyard. This is no 1990, any ECOMOG military adventure in Niger may lead to a catastrophic end. None of the countries in ECOMOG has the resources or logistics to embark on this herculean military adventure. In 1990, it was the US and British airforce that provided aerial support to ECOMOG troops in the wake of Taylor’s relentless barrage of mortal attacks.
Think about this for a moment, if 4 bulbs are on in France, 3 are powered by uranium France extract for next to no cost from Niger. Sadly, 90% of Niger’s power supply comes from Nigeria. France has 1.5k soldiers in Niger. The US’s largest drone base is located in Agadez, in Niger. The West wants that country to be its perpetual outpost with a leader that answers to Washington and Paris. If ECOMOG intervenes, it will not only be confronted by a determined military but also a rebellious population. Wagner currently does not operate in Niger but is one call away. Algeria has tacitly stated it will provide covert military support to its Saharan neighbor in the eventuality of ECOMOG invasion. Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Mali have publicly stated they will consider ECOMOG troops’ invasion of Niger as a declaration of war. The soldiers we intend to send into Niger may not feel comfortable pulling the trigger against their ex-comrades – who have been instrumental in the war against Boko Haram and ISWAP in the Northeast. Chad may not participate in a military invasion of Niger. The first casualty of such a military adventure will be ECOWAS itself.
I know for a fact President Tinubu is scared of Niger’s scenario playing out in Nigeria but the border between the civil and military estates is blurred. Our military is increasingly civilian-lized by virtue of its intense involvement in domestic security. His greatest foreign policy blunder would be the greenlighting of ECOMOG invasion of Niger. We must resist the temptation of turning a former commander of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) that is combating terrorism in the Northeast of our country into a militia leader. Furthermore, an invasion of Niger would create a vacuum and provide the perfect safe haven for Boko Haram and ISWAP to regroup and launch audacious attacks on our territory. Nigerians of modest means are bitterly feeling the hardship in the country, our IDPS are not left out and Niger hosts thousands of our refugees thus the need to resist the temptation of creating another humanitarian catastrophe by the use of force in Niger. A stable Niger regardless of its political outlook is a stable Nigeria. An invasion of Niger will not only lead to humanitarian crisis but also fuel the rise of violent jihadist movements in the North. Our military has reduced the terrorist capacity to launch an offensive to next to zero, a war in Niger will provide the terrorists in ICU two things: a safe haven and a black market for weapons.
Nigeria has historically been a strong advocate of non-alignment but we cannot close our eyes to the happening in our Northern border countries. If we must align, national interest must be the driving force and it is in the core national interest of our country to have a stable Niger. History has shown force does not provide a long-term solution to any conflict, diplomacy does. Diplomacy may be time-consuming and painful but it is our best answer to the Niger question.
Credit to: lidership.ng
D5 Creation